Oil prices climbed toward $100 a barrel on Monday after Iran suspended all nuclear negotiations with the United States and pledged to close the Strait of Hormuz, reviving fears of a full-blown energy shock.
WTI crude jumped roughly 8% to $96.14, while Brent traded near $100, as Tehran tied any further dialogue to a halt in Israeli operations across Lebanon and Gaza.
Iran Cuts Off Talks Over Lebanon Strikes
Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Monday that the US blockade of Iranian ports and Israel’s military operations in Lebanon were proof of Washington’s noncompliance with the existing ceasefire framework.
State-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported Tehran will exchange no further messages with US intermediaries until Israel withdraws from occupied parts of Lebanon and ends strikes in Gaza.
The reversal came nine days after President Donald Trump said a broader deal was “largely negotiated” and would be announced shortly, a statement that had unwound months of geopolitical risk premium tied to Iran deal optimism.
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Oil Price Rally Targets Triple Digits Again
WTI crude futures climbed to levels just shy of $100 a barrel by Monday afternoon. Traders are pricing the risk that Iran follows through on its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that carried about 20% of global seaborne oil in 2024.
Tehran also signaled it could activate Houthi operations across the Bab el-Mandeb, widening the Hormuz oil price gap between paper and physical barrels.
Analysts have warned that a dual chokepoint disruption would push oil well past $100 a barrel and compound the critical oil inventory tightness already flagged by Gulf producers earlier this spring.
The next 48 hours will test whether Trump can pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale back Lebanon strikes or whether Tehran follows through on its blockade threat.
“Now is the perfect test to see who calls the shots: Netanyahu or Trump Let’s see what happens next: Continued Israeli breaches, or Trump reigning in Bibi My bet is on the latter,” remarked podcast host and political commentator, Mario Nawfal.
For now, traders are treating the move as a return to wartime risk pricing rather than a one-day spike, given that supply through Hormuz has been constrained since late February.
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