Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drop from its October 2025 peak of $126,080 is its shallowest bear market ever versus 74% to 90% in prior cycles, but analysts at CoinEx, DWF Labs, and B2PRIME say the bottom isn’t in.
Posted June 10, 2026 at 5:43 am EST.
Bitcoin trades around $62,593, down roughly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, according to CoinGecko data cited by Decrypt. By that measure, the current drawdown is the shallowest bear market in Bitcoin’s history.
The trend across cycles is clear. In 2012, the drawdown exceeded 90%, according to CryptoQuant data. The next two cycles bottomed at 82%, and the 2022 cycle reached 74%. Each successive bear market has been shallower than the last. “Bitcoin is now a more institutionalized macro asset, supported by ETFs, deeper liquidity, and a larger base of long-term allocators,” Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, told Decrypt. He said he does not expect another 80% drawdown this cycle. Martin Lee of DWF Labs echoed the point, citing the presence of institutions and corporations holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
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The shallower drawdown does not mean the bottom is in, analysts cautioned. Ko pointed to ETF outflows, macro tightening, and liquidity rotation as the factors that will determine how prolonged the bear market becomes. Alex Tsepaev, chief strategy officer at B2PRIME Group, said the current picture is bearish given the combination of ETF outflows and macro pressure, noting that since May 18, there has been only one day of ETF inflows, on June 4. The drawdown extends a stretch in which Standard Chartered called the bottom “almost in” after a sharp weekly slide.
On price levels, both Ko and Tsepaev flagged $60,000 as the first key psychological support, with a bearish scenario involving a retest of the $55,000 and $45,000 levels. Market maker Wintermute noted in a Tuesday note that $62,000 support had come undone. Meanwhile, corporate buyers continue to step in, with Strategy buying 1,550 BTC below its cost basis for the first time last week.
A separate CoinDesk analysis framed the recent bounce as a corrective move rather than a reversal. Analysts at HEX Trust said Bitcoin needs to reclaim $79,000 to $80,000 to confirm a regime shift, while FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich put the nearer-term rebound level at $68,000. Both views condition any recovery on ETF outflows slowing and softer inflation data.
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