Gold prices retreated from a two-week high, as a firmer US dollar pressured the metal. Spot gold fell 0.58% to $4,141.26 an ounce.
JPMorgan still expects a fourth-quarter rebound towards $4,500, even after trimming its own target by about 25% when it anticipated a $6,000 price tag per ounce.
Dollar Strength Drives Gold’s Retreat
The dollar gained 0.3% heading into Tuesday, July 7. The move made gold pricier for overseas buyers and reversed part of last week’s slide. Jim Wyckoff, a market analyst at American Gold Exchange, called the shift a bearish factor for gold.
“The US dollar index is a little higher today and that is a daily bearish element (for gold).”
— Jim Wyckoff, CNBC
Losses stayed limited, though, after data showed a marked slowdown in June job growth. Revisions also cut prior payroll figures.
The soft data pushed down the odds of a near-term rate hike. The CME FedWatch Tool now prices roughly a 56% chance of a September hike. Traders await Wednesday’s Fed minutes for further clues.
JPMorgan Trims Target, Keeps Long-Term Bull Case
JPMorgan cut its own Q4 gold forecast by about 25% this month. The bank had projected $6,000 gold by year end just weeks earlier, on June 9.
The bank blamed softer demand from key buying sectors. It also warned that risks skew to the downside if inflation data runs hot this summer.
JPMorgan still holds a bullish long-term view for metals. It expects gold to extend its gains into 2027 as central banks keep buying.
The bank also forecasts silver averaging $60 to $65 an ounce. It expects steady gains for platinum, but softer palladium prices, through 2027. Wednesday’s Fed minutes could reshape those rate-hike odds, and with them, gold’s next move.
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