Did Dogecoin bottom first? DOGE price poised for 20% gains as whales return

Dogecoin (DOGE) has outpaced the broader crypto market over the past month, rising roughly 18% versus the market’s 10% gain, as whale accumulation and a bullish chart setup hint at a potential bottom.

DOGE/USDT vs. TOTAL crypto market cap 30-day returns. Source: TradingView

Key takeaways:

• DOGE whale holdings hit a record high as large transactions reached a six-month peak.
• DOGE’s triangle breakout targets $0.131, with $0.088 as the key invalidation level.

DOGE whale holdings hit new high amid April price rally

Dogecoin wallets holding at least 100 million DOGE controlled a record 108.52 billion DOGE, worth roughly $11.6 billion, as of late April, compared to under 107.95 billion DOGE in mid-April, according to data resource Santiment.

Dogecoin whale transaction count and holdings. Source: Santiment

The accumulation coincided with DOGE’s 23.50% price rebound, suggesting large holders helped support the move.

DOGE/USDT weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Whale activity also spiked. On April 28, Santiment recorded 739 Dogecoin transfers worth more than $100,000 in a single day, the highest count in six months. The surge came alongside the launch of 1Shares’ physically backed Dogecoin ETP on Xetra, Germany’s leading electronic trading platform.

DOGE triangle breakout points to 20% upside

From a technical standpoint, the DOGE price has entered the breakout stage of what appears to be a descending triangle pattern.

DOGE/USDT weekly chart. Source: TradingView

In classical technical analysis, descending triangles signal persistent selling pressure. These structures usually resolve to the downside, but upside breakouts do occur, especially in broader accumulation trends.

For instance, BTC formed a multi-month descending triangle in 2021 after the China mining crackdown.

BTC/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

The structure leaned bearish, but price broke above the descending trendline near $35,0000, triggering a squeeze that led to a rally over $52,000 in the following weeks.

Applying the same technical rule to DOGE charts puts its upside target for May at around $0.131, up about 20% from the current price. The level aligns with DOGE’s 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, the blue line).

DOGE/USDT weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Such a move would push Dogecoin above the average acquisition cost of large DOGE wallets holding more than 10,000 DOGE (green), currently near $0.115. It would also clear DOGE’s aggregate cost basis (black) around $0.132.

Historically, reclaiming these cost-basis levels has preceded extended bullish phases, as more holders return to profit and selling pressure eases.

DOGE realized price by wallet size. Source: Glassnode

Conversely, a rejection near current levels, around the 20-week EMA (green) resistance, would weaken the bullish breakout case. Such a pullback could put DOGE at risk of revisiting its local low near $0.088 in May.

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