Bitcoin short-term cost basis approaches profitability, but $80K must flip to support first

Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new three-month high of $80,500 on Monday, testing the level for the first time since Jan. 31. The rally above $80,000 puts the price just below short-term holders’ cost basis of $81,486, the next dynamic resistance level. For the rally to continue, a daily close above this level is key to securing $80,000 as support. 

A rally to $81,500 may lock in the trend

Bitcoin’s rally to $80,000 places the price directly under the short-term holder’s realized price of $81,486. This metric reflects the average cost of coins moved over the last 155 days and indicates where recent buyers have flipped from loss to profit.

A daily close above $81,500 would return these holders to profit and reduce sell-side pressure. According to crypto analyst Crazyyblockk, the short-term holder losses have narrowed to about -2.17%, showing that the overhead supply band is thinning. The long-term holders (LTHs) hold near +27% profit and are not distributing aggressively.

Bitcoin LTH/STH SOPR ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

The spent-output profit ratio (SOPR), which tracks whether coins are spent at a profit or a loss, has climbed to 1.097 from 0.99. This indicates the coins are being spent in profit again, led by long-term holders. 

The exchange inflow data aligns with that shift. Around 97.2% of recent deposits came from short-term holders, with wallets holding 1 to 1,000 BTC contributing roughly 58%.

BTC inflows peaked at 35,649 BTC on April 24 and dropped to 3,895 BTC by May 3. That compression reduces immediate sell pressure and supports the case for holding at $80,000 once the cost basis flips.

Related: Bitcoin in ‘disbelief rally’ as traders spot $84K BTC price target

BTC exchange supply builds below $80,000

BTC exchange flow data tracked by Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr shows 8,512 BTC in net inflows over recent days, with spikes on April 27 and April 30. The price absorbed that supply without a sharp downside, signaling an active BTC demand.

Bitcoin exchange netflows for all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

The BTC flows have since cooled to near-neutral at 269 BTC between May 1 and May 3. The short-term averages stay positive, while the longer-term averages sit near zero, keeping the move contained to a short impulse.

BTC exchange reserves increased by 5,773 BTC week over week to 2,685,541 BTC, before easing slightly after April 30. Adler Jr explained that the coins are currently sitting on exchanges without aggressive selling, forming a supply overhang that could turn into pressure if demand slows.

Meanwhile, crypto trader Ardi highlighted that BTC is retesting breakout liquidity near $79,600. The trader said that holding this level keeps the move intact toward the next supply zone near $84,000. 

BTC/USDT analysis by Ardi. Source: X

A breakdown below $80,000 shifts focus to the new-money cost basis near $76,500 and increases the likelihood of a failed breakout setup.

Related: BTC price can ‘easily’ hit $95K: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.