Fed Holds Rates for Third Straight Meeting as Dissenters Drive 30-Year Treasury Yield to 5%

The Fed voted 8-4 to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75% with its most divided decision in 30 years, sending the 30-year Treasury yield to 5% and pushing bitcoin briefly below $75,000.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 8-4 on Wednesday to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, extending its pause on rate adjustments for a third consecutive meeting in what became the most divided policy decision in more than 30 years. Bitcoin fell from roughly $76,200 to briefly below $75,000 in the first hour following the announcement before partially recovering. Ether, Solana, and XRP extended earlier losses to multi-week lows.

The vote split was more notable than the outcome. Stephen Miran dissented in favor of an immediate quarter-point cut, arguing the rate is too restrictive given signs of softening in parts of the economy. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan voted alongside the majority to hold but opposed any language in the FOMC statement that implied an easing bias, pushing back against suggestions of near-term cuts. The Fed’s post-meeting statement said economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while inflation remains “somewhat elevated,” and flagged that developments in the Middle East are adding a high level of uncertainty to the outlook. The committee cited rising global energy prices as a factor keeping inflation sticky.

This story is an excerpt from the Unchained Daily newsletter.

The hawkish dissents pushed the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5% early Wednesday, its highest level since July 2025. That yield level has been reached only twice in the past two decades. Analysts pointed to the 5% threshold as a meaningful headwind for risk assets. A 30-year government bond offering that return represents a near-risk-free alternative to bitcoin and other non-yielding assets, and rising yields have historically corresponded with capital rotating away from crypto. Gold also fell over 1% to a one-month low of around $4,540 on the session. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus exchange, said rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have historically pressured crypto valuations by tightening financial conditions.

Wednesday also marked one of Jerome Powell’s final meetings as Fed chair. During the post-meeting press conference, Powell confirmed he plans to remain as a governor after his chairmanship ends in mid-May. The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh’s nomination to succeed Powell as Fed chair by a 13-11 party-line vote the same day, clearing Warsh’s path toward a full Senate confirmation. Markets have been watching the leadership transition closely, with Warsh widely viewed as more open to easing than Powell.