Ethereum is staging a quiet comeback, even as the price is falling. ETH is dropping under $1,900, well off its late-2024 highs, while Bitcoin continues to show cycle-wide underperformance that Standard Chartered says is now working directly in Ethereum’s favor.
Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, told clients this week that Strategy’s disclosure of a 32 BTC sale worth $2.5 million may mark a structural turning point for the ETH/BTC ratio.
On the day of the announcement, ETH posted one of its largest single-day outperformance moves versus BTC in recent years, an event that has occurred just 23 times since the start of 2024. Kendrick projects the ETH/BTC ratio to climb from 0.028 to 0.04 by year-end, implying over 40% relative outperformance for Ethereum.
His Ethereum price target is at $2,700 near-term, assuming flat BTC at under $70,000, $4,000 by year-end, and an eyebrow-raising $40,000 by 2030.
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Can Ethereum Price Hit $4,000 This Year as the ETH/BTC Ratio Turns?
Ethereum is trading under $1,900, or 62% below its August peak of nearly $5,000. The ETH/BTC ratio sits at approximately 0.028, down sharply from its high of 0.042.
Kendrick’s thesis rests on a structural argument: Ethereum-holding treasury companies can stake ETH to generate yield, funding operations without forced coin sales. Bitcoin treasury firms have no equivalent cash-flow mechanism, and Strategy’s sale illustrated this friction in real time.
This, he argues, supports a higher modified net asset value for ETH-based treasuries and reduces selling pressure on the asset itself. It’s a point the market has been slow to price in, which may be exactly why the opportunity exists.
For bull, they want ETH/BTC to reclaim 0.04 by Q4, with ETH trading toward $4,000 as RWA tokenization volume accelerates upward. However, a broad risk-off event drags both ETH and BTC lower; leveraged long flushes similar to recent Bitcoin liquidation cascades could reset ETH below $1,600 and delay the ratio recovery well into 2026.
Standard Chartered isn’t alone in flagging ETH’s structural undervaluation; multiple analysts have compared the current ETH discount to Amazon’s post-dot-com trough before its decade-defining recovery.
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Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early Mover Upside as Ethereum Staking Narrative Heats Up
The staking yield argument driving Kendrick’s ETH thesis reflects a broader market shift: infrastructure that generates native yield is being revalued faster than passive-hold assets. Bitcoin, historically locked out of that dynamic, may be changing.
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